Technical analysis: Between the rising trendline and the 200-day EMA
Following its July high of $232.72, Morgan Stanley initially formed a broad trading range. The break below $202.24, labelled as the 61.8% Fibonacci level on the chart, confirmed the downside breakout. The shares subsequently lost the 200-day EMA.
A narrower trading range is now developing. The 200-day EMA at $193.73 and the range ceiling around $194–$195 limit potential recoveries. Below the market, the rising trendline drawn from March 2026 and nearby 38.2% Fibonacci support at $183.40 provide important reference points. The marked support area extends down to approximately $182.
The displayed closing price of $186.64 remains within this structure. Recent tests of the lower area have yet to produce a sustained downside breakout. However, a confirmed bottom is still missing: the RSI stands at 39.23, clearly below the 48.5 threshold used in this analysis.
A sustained break beneath the entire support area would increase the risk of a further decline towards $171.75, the chart’s labelled 23.6% Fibonacci level.
Renewed bullish momentum first requires a recovery above the 200-day EMA and the range ceiling. That would bring $202.24 into focus. A sustained break above this next hurdle would strengthen the case for re-entering the previous trading range and eventually resuming the broader uptrend.
