“One of the reasons Israel has tried to avoid a two-front war, going against Hezbollah and Hamas at the same time, is because it can’t afford to have both Tamar and Leviathan shut down at the same time,” he said. “It doesn’t have an alternative to the gas. But if you hit those fields, you’re hurting your friends, not just your enemies — so this cooperation is also something of a source of deterrence.”
Oil to play for
Access to crude oil, gasoline and diesel has long been a major headache for Israeli policymakers, and Arab-led embargoes following regional wars in 1967 and 1973 sparked crippling energy crises. In response, Israeli security services began a secret program of trading weapons for oil from African dictatorships.
While Israel’s exact oil import statistics are a national secret, Azerbaijan has now emerged as its leading partner, having sold Israel $300 million worth of crude this past January alone, while receiving huge volumes of weaponry to use in its conflict with neighboring Armenia.
“Israel valued Azerbaijan as a crucial ally within the Muslim-majority world, offering not only strategic depth but also essential energy security,” said Ayaz Rzayev, a research fellow at Baku’s Topchubashov Center. “For Azerbaijan, the relationship with Israel provided access to cutting-edge military technology, helping maintain a significant technological edge in the region.”
However, even that relationship is becoming more uncertain as the war in Gaza escalates, Rzayev said, given that “Azerbaijan also places significant importance on its solidarity with Muslim states.” Turkey, Azerbaijan’s closest ally, has become a leading champion of the Palestinian cause since the conflict exploded, with President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan imposing an unprecedented trade embargo on Israel.
“The big question is what do the Turks do,” said Freilich, the former national security official. “Most of Israel’s oil comes via pipelines to Turkey, and if they wanted they could cut off the spigot.”
