Global energy and financial leaders say the war in the Middle East is delivering a “substantial, global, and highly asymmetric” shock with the heaviest impact falling on poorer countries.
In a joint statement, the heads of the International Energy Agency, International Monetary Fund and World Bank Group said the conflict is already pushing up oil gas and fertiliser prices raising fresh concerns over food security jobs and wider economic stability.
They warned: “The impact of the war is substantial, global, and highly asymmetric, disproportionately affecting energy importers, in particular low-income countries.”
The disruption is spreading through global supply chains everywhere. Shipping through the Strait of Hormuz remains unstable and even if flows return to normal, it will take time for markets to rebalance with infrastructure damage likely to keep prices elevated for longer.
“The situation remains very uncertain,” they said adding that “fuel and fertilizer prices may remain high for a prolonged period.”
They warn the knock-on effects are already moving beyond energy.
Shortages of key inputs are expected to hit food production and industrial output while displacement job losses and weaker travel and tourism add further strain to economies already under pressure.
They said: “Due to supply disruptions, shortages of key inputs are likely to have implications for energy, food, and other industries.”
The response is now being coordinated across institutions.
The organisations confirmed they are working closely together to assess country-level impacts and provide targeted support combining policy advice with financial backing where required.
The joint statement concludes:
Our teams are working closely, including at country level, to leverage our respective expertise and help countries through tailored policy advice and, in the case of the IMF and World Bank, financial support where needed.
“We will continue to monitor closely and assess the impact of the war on energy markets, the global economy and individual countries, and to coordinate our response and support to our member countries—working with, and drawing on, other international organizations’ expertise as needed to lay the foundations for a resilient recovery that delivers stability, growth and jobs.”
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