September 15, 2024
Energy

Opinion | China must not let coal habit stain its renewable energy record


In what can only be called a major win for China, its renewable energy capacity is setting records. Wind and solar power are expected to account for more than 40 per cent of the country’s installed power generation capacity by the end of the year. Better yet, China’s wind and solar power capacity exceeded that of its much-criticised coal-fired power for the first time during the first half of the year.

The China Electricity Council expects the nation to add 300 gigawatts (GW) of solar and wind power capacity to the grid this year, an increase of 7GW from the year before. A country’s electrical grid includes power stations, substations to regulate voltage and transmission lines to carry the power over long distances. The last stage consists of power distribution to industrial and residential end users.

More growth is on the horizon. The Paris-based International Energy Agency predicts that China’s capacity for renewable electricity will grow threefold over the next five years compared to the previous five, making up some 56 per cent of renewable energy growth worldwide. Even more remarkable, from 2023 to 2028, China is expected to have a renewable energy capacity nearly four times more than that of the European Union, and five times more than the United States.
China’s solar and wind power development, along with nuclear and hydropower, could drive its installed capacity of non-fossil-fuel electricity sources to 57.5 per cent of the energy mix by the end of the year, up from 53.9 per cent last year, the China Electricity Council report added.

While this is good news for the embattled energy sector, which has received perhaps an inordinate share of global criticism over its reliance on fossil fuel, China appears to be a victim of its own success.

Its renewable energy capacity has grown so much over the past few years that its grid is unable to accommodate the extra power. This leads to grid curtailment, threatens the growth of renewable energy and could justify continuing with coal-fired power projects.

08:42

The surprising hurdle slowing China’s switch to green energy

The surprising hurdle slowing China’s switch to green energy

Grid curtailment isn’t new. Many countries struggle with the phenomenon as they ramp up their renewable energy sectors. Britain, for example, which has a sophisticated grid and is putting in place a so-called smart grid – an electricity supply network that uses digital communications technology to detect and react to local changes in usage – is a textbook case.

A recent report by think tank Policy Exchange found the UK was losing £1 billion (US$1.28 billion) every year because it did not have enough transmission capacity for the wind power it was generating. By the time planned solutions are implemented in the next decade, costs will have increased to £3.5 billion annually.

China might have an even more difficult time figuring out a solution simply because of the scale of its renewables development. Reuters reported in May that China’s “breakneck buildout of solar power” fuelled by what it called “rock-bottom equipment prices and policy support, is slowing as grid bottlenecks pile up”. Added to the fray, market reforms are increasing uncertainty for power generators, while the best rooftop space for solar is running out, the report added.

Grid curtailment also varies across China, with some regions unable to absorb power from renewable energy while others fare better. The way out will be for China to match its rampant renewable energy development with corresponding grid expansion.

Beijing is trying to tackle the problem. It plans to invest some US$800 billion over the next six years to handle grid curtailment. It remains to be seen how this will play out since grid curtailment is difficult to manage even in smaller countries.

02:10

China starts drilling second 10,000-metre hole in search of oil and natural gas

China starts drilling second 10,000-metre hole in search of oil and natural gas

China’s renewable energy development bodes well for the national attempt to reach peak emissions by 2030 and net zero by 2060. But more needs to be done. China is one of only a few economies that did not set their net zero pledges at 2050. It remains the world’s largest coal consumer and producer, as well as a major coal importer; it is also the world’s largest crude oil importer. As the world’s biggest emitter of carbon dioxide, China produces more than twice the amount of emissions as the US in second place.
Moreover, China is still commissioning coal-fired power plants even as its capacity to produce solar and wind power sets record highs. Last year, the country was responsible for 95 per cent of the world’s new coal power development. Construction began last year on 70GW of new coal power capacity, up fourfold since 2019. This comes as most of the rest of the world has pulled back on new coal power projects. Troublingly, coal accounted for nearly two-thirds of China’s electricity supply last year.

To offset the construction of coal-fired power projects (which often receive governmental approval to help stoke local and regional economic growth), China should start to retire older coal-fired power plants earlier than planned. It should also decide on a complete coal phase-out instead of a partial pullback.

Failure to do so will see more Chinese coal power projects cancel out many of the gains renewable energy can make in reducing carbon dioxide emissions from its power sector. Failure to rein in its coal power usage would also see any goodwill from China’s increase in solar and wind power erode on the global stage as concerned nations watch the energy-hungry nation dither at a crucial time.

Tim Daiss has been an energy markets and geopolitical journalist and analyst in the Asia-Pacific region for the past 15 years



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