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Micron Technology (MU) has drawn fresh attention after a very large 1 year total return, with the share price also showing gains over the past month and past 3 months.
For investors, that recent performance raises a simple question: whether the current price near $362.75 still lines up with the company’s fundamentals, including revenue of about $42.3b and net income of roughly $11.9b.
See our latest analysis for Micron Technology.
The recent 1 day share price return of 7.76%, together with a 30 day share price return of 36.41% and a 1 year total shareholder return of 232.73%, points to strong momentum that has reshaped how the market is pricing Micron’s growth prospects and risk profile.
If this kind of move in Micron has you thinking about where else capital is flowing in chips and AI, it could be worth scanning high growth tech and AI stocks as a next step.
With Micron trading around $362.75 against revenue of about $42.3b and net income near $11.9b, the key question now is whether there is still value on the table or if potential future growth is already reflected in the current price.
According to BlackGoat, the narrative fair value of around $300 per share sits below Micron’s last close at $362.75, which naturally raises questions about what is baked into that gap.
“Micron Technology stands at a fascinating crossroads where the promise of a powerful, AI-driven supercycle meets the persistent risks of a volatile industry. The core investment thesis is a bet that the structural, long-term demand for high-performance memory, particularly HBM, will be strong enough to fundamentally change the company’s profitability and mitigate the historical boom-and-bust cycles.”
Curious how this narrative gets to a higher fair value than past cycles might suggest? Revenue acceleration, margin expansion and a richer future earnings multiple are all doing heavy lifting behind the scenes.
Result: Fair Value of $300 (OVERVALUED)
Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what’s behind the forecasts.
However, there are still clear pressure points, including intense competition in high bandwidth memory and the risk that industry cyclicality or geopolitics could undercut those optimistic assumptions.
Find out about the key risks to this Micron Technology narrative.
BlackGoat’s narrative suggests Micron is about 21% overvalued at around $363, but the market’s own P/E tells a different story. At 34.3x earnings, Micron trades well below the US Semiconductor average of 43.4x and peers at 64.5x, and also below an estimated fair ratio of 52.6x.
