Make better investment decisions with Simply Wall St’s easy, visual tools that give you a competitive edge.
Seagate Technology Holdings (STX) has drawn attention after recent trading, with the stock last closing at $407.25 and showing mixed short term performance alongside strong longer term total returns.
See our latest analysis for Seagate Technology Holdings.
For context, the recent 2.78% 1 day share price return comes after a 26.68% 30 day share price gain and a very large 1 year total shareholder return. Taken together, these figures point to strong momentum rather than a short term spike.
If Seagate’s run has you looking beyond a single name, this may be a moment to scan other data storage and AI infrastructure plays through our 34 AI infrastructure stocks.
With the shares at $407.25, a model-based intrinsic value indicating a 33% discount and analyst targets about 15% higher, is Seagate still trading below what its fundamentals imply, or is the market already pricing in future growth?
Compared with the last close at $407.25, the most widely followed narrative pegs Seagate’s fair value closer to $297, putting the current price well above that mark.
The Fair Value Estimate has risen slightly to approximately $297 per share from about $289, reflecting modestly stronger long term growth and earnings assumptions.
Curious what has to happen in revenue, margins and earnings by the late 2020s to justify that fair value and multiple shift, and how confident that path looks?
Result: Fair Value of $297.09 (OVERVALUED)
Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what’s behind the forecasts.
However, there are still real swing factors here, including potential trade policy changes, as well as rising competition from SSD and QLC NAND that could pressure HDD pricing and margins.
Find out about the key risks to this Seagate Technology Holdings narrative.
While the popular narrative sees Seagate as 37.1% overvalued around a fair value of $297 per share, our DCF model points in the opposite direction, with an estimate of $612.35. That is a 33.5% gap below this fair value, so which set of assumptions do you trust more, and why?
