It is hard to get excited after looking at TravelSky Technology’s (HKG:696) recent performance, when its stock has declined 24% over the past three months. It seems that the market might have completely ignored the positive aspects of the company’s fundamentals and decided to weigh-in more on the negative aspects. Fundamentals usually dictate market outcomes so it makes sense to study the company’s financials. Particularly, we will be paying attention to TravelSky Technology’s ROE today.
Return on Equity or ROE is a test of how effectively a company is growing its value and managing investors’ money. In other words, it is a profitability ratio which measures the rate of return on the capital provided by the company’s shareholders.
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How Do You Calculate Return On Equity?
Return on equity can be calculated by using the formula:
Return on Equity = Net Profit (from continuing operations) ÷ Shareholders’ Equity
So, based on the above formula, the ROE for TravelSky Technology is:
6.9% = CN¥1.4b ÷ CN¥21b (Based on the trailing twelve months to December 2023).
The ‘return’ is the amount earned after tax over the last twelve months. That means that for every HK$1 worth of shareholders’ equity, the company generated HK$0.07 in profit.
What Has ROE Got To Do With Earnings Growth?
So far, we’ve learned that ROE is a measure of a company’s profitability. Based on how much of its profits the company chooses to reinvest or “retain”, we are then able to evaluate a company’s future ability to generate profits. Generally speaking, other things being equal, firms with a high return on equity and profit retention, have a higher growth rate than firms that don’t share these attributes.
A Side By Side comparison of TravelSky Technology’s Earnings Growth And 6.9% ROE
On the face of it, TravelSky Technology’s ROE is not much to talk about. However, given that the company’s ROE is similar to the average industry ROE of 8.0%, we may spare it some thought. But then again, TravelSky Technology’s five year net income shrunk at a rate of 22%. Bear in mind, the company does have a slightly low ROE. Hence, this goes some way in explaining the shrinking earnings.
However, when we compared TravelSky Technology’s growth with the industry we found that while the company’s earnings have been shrinking, the industry has seen an earnings growth of 2.9% in the same period. This is quite worrisome.
Earnings growth is an important metric to consider when valuing a stock. It’s important for an investor to know whether the market has priced in the company’s expected earnings growth (or decline). This then helps them determine if the stock is placed for a bright or bleak future. Is TravelSky Technology fairly valued compared to other companies? These 3 valuation measures might help you decide.
Is TravelSky Technology Efficiently Re-investing Its Profits?
When we piece together TravelSky Technology’s low three-year median payout ratio of 15% (where it is retaining 85% of its profits), calculated for the last three-year period, we are puzzled by the lack of growth. This typically shouldn’t be the case when a company is retaining most of its earnings. It looks like there might be some other reasons to explain the lack in that respect. For example, the business could be in decline.
Moreover, TravelSky Technology has been paying dividends for at least ten years or more suggesting that management must have perceived that the shareholders prefer dividends over earnings growth. Looking at the current analyst consensus data, we can see that the company’s future payout ratio is expected to rise to 32% over the next three years. However, TravelSky Technology’s future ROE is expected to rise to 10% despite the expected increase in the company’s payout ratio. We infer that there could be other factors that could be driving the anticipated growth in the company’s ROE.
Conclusion
Overall, we have mixed feelings about TravelSky Technology. While the company does have a high rate of profit retention, its low rate of return is probably hampering its earnings growth. With that said, we studied the latest analyst forecasts and found that while the company has shrunk its earnings in the past, analysts expect its earnings to grow in the future. To know more about the company’s future earnings growth forecasts take a look at this free report on analyst forecasts for the company to find out more.
Valuation is complex, but we’re here to simplify it.
Discover if TravelSky Technology might be undervalued or overvalued with our detailed analysis, featuring fair value estimates, potential risks, dividends, insider trades, and its financial condition.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
