If you buy and hold a stock for many years, you’d hope to be making a profit. Better yet, you’d like to see the share price move up more than the market average. Unfortunately for shareholders, while the Vulcan Materials Company (NYSE:VMC) share price is up 79% in the last five years, that’s less than the market return. On a brighter note, more newer shareholders are probably rather content with the 32% share price gain over twelve months.
So let’s assess the underlying fundamentals over the last 5 years and see if they’ve moved in lock-step with shareholder returns.
View our latest analysis for Vulcan Materials
While markets are a powerful pricing mechanism, share prices reflect investor sentiment, not just underlying business performance. By comparing earnings per share (EPS) and share price changes over time, we can get a feel for how investor attitudes to a company have morphed over time.
Over half a decade, Vulcan Materials managed to grow its earnings per share at 10% a year. So the EPS growth rate is rather close to the annualized share price gain of 12% per year. That suggests that the market sentiment around the company hasn’t changed much over that time. Indeed, it would appear the share price is reacting to the EPS.
The image below shows how EPS has tracked over time (if you click on the image you can see greater detail).
We know that Vulcan Materials has improved its bottom line lately, but is it going to grow revenue? If you’re interested, you could check this free report showing consensus revenue forecasts.
When looking at investment returns, it is important to consider the difference between total shareholder return (TSR) and share price return. The TSR is a return calculation that accounts for the value of cash dividends (assuming that any dividend received was reinvested) and the calculated value of any discounted capital raisings and spin-offs. Arguably, the TSR gives a more comprehensive picture of the return generated by a stock. We note that for Vulcan Materials the TSR over the last 5 years was 87%, which is better than the share price return mentioned above. This is largely a result of its dividend payments!
Vulcan Materials shareholders are up 33% for the year (even including dividends). But that was short of the market average. On the bright side, that’s still a gain, and it’s actually better than the average return of 13% over half a decade This could indicate that the company is winning over new investors, as it pursues its strategy. I find it very interesting to look at share price over the long term as a proxy for business performance. But to truly gain insight, we need to consider other information, too. Consider risks, for instance. Every company has them, and we’ve spotted 2 warning signs for Vulcan Materials you should know about.
