December 12, 2024
Investments

Anthony Pompliano on Why Bitcoin Is a ’20-Plus-Year’ Investment | Video


Well, the United States already has, you know, 210,000 Bitcoin give or take in its possession had many more, you know, over the years. But uh they kind of um you know, strategy has been to sell that and get cash. And so, you know, does the US government hold Bitcoin today? Yes. Is it a strategic stockpile? I don’t think that’s how they view it. It’s Tuesday, July 30th and this is Market Staley hosted by me Jen Sani. On this show, we navigate the current shaping the crypto market. It’s providing insights against the broader financial landscape, whether you’re actively trading or simply fascinated by the volatility. That is the crypto markets. This show is your compass to understanding what’s happened where we are and where we’re going. Good morning everyone. Our guest today needs absolutely no introduction from venture capital to podcasting. He’s really done it all. Anthony Pomp. Welcome to Markets Daily. Thanks so much for having me. Of course. Thanks for being here. So as you know, on this show, we really want to dig into the crypto markets. We want to hear from people who have been successful at navigating the crypto markets. So my first question to you is how you’re allocating a portfolio this morning or how you’re thinking about allocating a portfolio if you look at what’s going on in the crypto markets this morning. Yeah. So I don’t really think just about the crypto market, I think kind of more broadly about finance in general and, and all asset markets. Um Our portfolio really is uh crypto is a dominant percentage uh more than 50% but we also have large allocations to early stage uh venture capital. Um And then we’ve got some real estate. Uh and then increasingly we’re doing more and more stuff in the public markets as well. Um Crypto side, I would say that um you know, the majority of it is in Bitcoin, it’s a position that we’ve held for a long time. Uh We’ve added to it, you know, throughout the years. Um And it’s something that we kind of look at as a 2030 plus year investment, you know, we don’t really trade at all. We don’t think about, you know, possibly selling based on price levels. It really is just kind of buy whole great asset forever. And hopefully I give it to my grandkids. Uh the second biggest position in the portfolio is Salana. That’s a relatively new thing. We started putting that position on back around, you know, 45 $48 I think last year and then added to it on the way up uh pretty consistently and that’s, you know, grown substantially as position size and now second largest. Um and then I would say that, you know, other things in crypto that uh we’re really excited about. Um We sold a company earlier this year called Reflexivity Research to a publicly traded company called D I Technologies. Uh D I Technologies uh does ETPS across Europe for kind of the long tail of crypto assets. Uh And they’ve got a really strong business and, and seem to be doing pretty well. And so, you know, really just thinking about if crypto is a sector that we want to invest in, how do you get exposure across many different uh you know, kind of aspects both are liquid cryptocurrencies, private uh companies in terms of venture capital and then also some of the public companies as well. You mentioned Soul there. Most of the folks who come on this show have their two biggest crypto allocations as Bitcoin and Ether. Um but I, you just said you have soul as your second Vegas. I know that you’re bullish on soul. Uh Talk to me a little bit about your investment thesis when it comes to Solana over Ether. Yeah, I mean, you know, my experience with Solana uh really was uh we were LP S in uh um Multi Coins Fund One and Multi Coin Fund One invested in Solana. I think that they did it at less than a dollar a couple of pennies. Um And so there was this explosive move in the bull market of kind of 2020 2021. Uh Those guys did a fantastic job, I think of managing that position, capturing a lot of profits there. Uh And then, you know, when they were giving us uh kind of in kind distributions, I was saying to myself and to my partners, I, I don’t know what this is, right. We, we literally had spent no time on it, didn’t understand it. Uh And didn’t know what to do with the slater. Do we hold it? Do we sell it? You know, where do we go? And so obviously in the bear market, it dropped significantly all the way down to, I think $8. Um and it started to kind of come back. And one of the things that was interesting to me, uh as I began to look at, you know, why did it not die? It reminded me a lot of Bitcoin, right? Multiple times. Why did that not die? Uh But second was I started to see the beginning of uh activity on salon starting to eat into some of the ether activity or Ethereum activity and not so much in a game of like Ethereum is not going to be strong or it’s not going to, you know, see the token price go up, but more so just the missed priced opportunity, right? If you think that both activities are going to go up. Solana’s activity may just go up at a faster rate. They may actually eat into some of the market share that E thee has for certain things like dex activity or, you know, uh token launches, et cetera. And so if that was to occur, then you could expect the price of the sole token to go up more than the Ether token. And that really was, you know, kind of the analysis. Um And so, you know, as I’ve shared previously, uh I sold any of the ether that I personally held um kind of around the end of last year, beginning of this year, some somewhere wherever soul was trading at, you know, 70 early, $70.73 dollars, something like that. Um And so far it’s played out. Um And, you know, I, I continue to believe that the salon activity numbers uh and uh you know, kind of various macro factors uh will allow that asset specifically to continue to perform quite attractively. And so we’re just holding for now, Anthony, what’s the worst investment you’ve ever made? The biggest investment, like mistakes are definitely investments I didn’t make. Um you know, which is kind of like a, a dumb answer. But uh if you look at it from a pure, like capital that was not captured or capital that was lost. Um There was a number of different companies that uh early on, you know, I saw um and just didn’t pull the trigger. You know, I remember working at Facebook, uh, and I met with one of the executives at doordash and the company was very small, very early. Um, and, uh I could have an opportunity to invest. I didn’t do it. Um And so when you see those things, you kind of learn over time that uh the very large asymmetric bets, um sometimes it is worth just taking it because the risk reward is so skewed. Uh But, but those definitely are the ones that, you know, kind of cost me the most money, uh are just things that I didn’t do and should have, let’s take the doordash example for a second. Why didn’t you make that investment? Talk me through your analysis and what it was about doordash that made you skip on that investment. I’d never made any investments before, you know, I, I was very much in the operator mindset. Um I was working at Facebook. I was focused on my job. Um, you know, I, I was frankly if I was going to do anything with them, um I probably would have been like, hey, maybe I should go work there, you know, kind of help on the growth team or something like that. Uh But instead, you know, not knowing now what I know, uh I would have been talking to them from an investment standpoint. I would have said, hey, can I put money into this and So when, when you see that, you know, part of it is not just evaluating a specific investment, but also what mindset are you in? Right? How many different early stage start ups? Did I talk to the founders that I even helped the founders over the years before I realized, well, maybe I should also put money in these companies. And so that was a huge unlock, you know, for me personally, my career was, you know, putting capital to work, not just kind of being helpful, uh obviously drives a financial return. And then the other thing that I would say is um you know, understanding kind of portfolio construction. You know, there’s one thing to say about uh hey, I’ve got a really high conviction in something like Bitcoin, it’s probably not gonna go to zero. And so maybe I could lose, you know, 10 20% 30% of my money, but it’s not like I’m gonna lose everything in venture, you can lose everything. And so really understanding the dynamics of like, well, you have to build a portfolio of these in order to drive an overall return. Uh is something that, you know, it just took me a while to learn. And then once I understood it, you know, put me in a much better position, allocate capital. You mentioned just at the top of the show that you plan on holding Bitcoin for 20 or 30 years. We heard from Senator Lemi at the Bitcoin conference in Nashville on the weekend, she put together a proposal for the government to hold Bitcoin for about 20 years to start tackling national debt. I know that you saw those, uh, uh, those remarks, I know that you’ve made comments on that but just curious to hear your thoughts on what you think of Lamas’s plan and holding Bitcoin in the National Reserve to start tackling the $35 trillion worth of debt that this country has. Yeah, I, you know, I understand what Senator Loma is uh is saying here. I think it’s a very clever idea. Um I think, you know, whether the United States holds Bitcoin on its balance sheet uh as a strategic reserve or as a strategic stockpile, right, actually, back in the dollar or not, I think is uh separate and distinct from uh kind of a national debt conversation. It’s very hard to see a world where the Bitcoin that the United States hold would actually, you know, make a significant dent in that. Um You know, if you look at kind of buying 1 million Bitcoin 68 $70 billion today, if that goes up, you know, significantly, let’s say, you know, 20 X, it still doesn’t even cover 10% of the national debt uh where we actually are growing the debt faster than Bitcoin is growing and so the debt would continue to expand. Um But I, I do think that it’s the right mentality, right? And I, I think that the courage uh frankly that Senator Lumus has to not only do the work, put together the legislation, you know, go present it, stake her own, you know, kind of social capital uh on doing something like that is commendable. And so really, now that the idea is whether you think it’s for national debt or for other purposes, the consensus is forming that people across political aisle want the US government to hold big point. And you saw that with some of the leading presidential candidates. But also now you’re seeing it with senators and congressmen. Uh you’re seeing it, you know, kind of in the uh regular constituency. Uh Both Republicans Democrats, independents, they all were interested in this happening. And so we’re probably not at the point where um that consensus is strong enough for it to happen, you know, tomorrow. But I do think within the next five years or so, uh there’s likely to be enough consensus where you’re going to start to see that occurring, you know, at some degree on the national level, you know, we’ve been talking about the elections for probably every day on this show now, uh curious to get your thoughts on what you think a Trump presidency could mean for the crypto industry versus Harris presidency. Yeah, I mean, you know, this is one of those things that um there’s a lot of narrative uh and then there’s kind of the facts and the data. And if you look at, um you know, kind of the current administration, uh they have had made more progress for the crypto industry than any other administration before that Coinbase uh went public. Uh We got the Bitcoin ETF and we got the Ether ETF, those three things probably did more for the crypto industry than, you know, all other things combined previously uh in terms of regulators, you know, allowing for certain activity. So, although the industry rightfully so has seen the current administration as being abrasive, uh there still was quite a bit of progress that occurred in that abrasive environment. And so if we get a president, regardless of which president it is, who simply says, hey, we’re going to be friendlier, uh you would expect there to be an explosion of kind of positive developments. Now, what is, you know, kind of interesting to, to kind of go down that thread is, well, what are the other things that you really want the regulators to do? Right. Maybe it is approve more ETF S and so you kind of start going down a coin market, capitalists or something of ETF S. Um maybe there is something around kind of clear guidance for early stage start ups. Um you know, in terms of token launches or the use of tokens. Uh but the list is probably, you know, five things or less that really the regulators uh specifically can go and do now, if you go and then you add Congress, the Senate, you know, even the President and some of the legislation that could be passed, you know, we’ve seen multiple bills around accounting rules and things like that. That aren’t necessarily the SEC or the CFTC. Um, that list may expand from, you know, five or less to, maybe there’s like 25 things that could be done. And so I do think the bulk of uh a lot of the things people want done are actually in the legislative process, not necessarily from the regulators. Although the, you know, called 3 to 5 things that people want the regulators to do are really, really important as well. And so, you know, really what we’re talking about here is a regime shift or mentality shift, not just around regulation, but also from the political class in general. And if you go around the world, you’ve seen this happen before people kind of, you know, ignore it, then they fight it and eventually the industry wins. And so I think that’s what ultimately is going to happen here in the United States is we’re kind of coming off of the fighting phase. Um And you know, we’re starting into the winning phase for the industry. I want to broaden the conversation out and talk about areas outside of the United States. I know you tweeted recently that governments all over the world are probably talking about how Bitcoin might benefit them after the weekend’s remarks. But do you think the governments are watching what’s happening here with the election and starting to think about how their policies might impact crypto innovation there and maybe how they can start holding Bitcoin in their reserves. I definitely think that, um governments around the world watch the United States, right? For nothing else than to be informed. Uh, but possibly even to copy. Um, and you see this with, you know, central banks are a great example of the ECB said for a while, we’re not going to raise rates, we’re not going to raise rates and then they sort of raised the rates after the US did it. Um And so I think that, you know, the United States is the leader on the global stage, especially in the financial markets. Uh People look to us for guidance and leadership. Um And if you are a president where in the world and you hear that two of the three leading presidential candidates are talking about a strategic stockpile of Bitcoin for the US, you start asking your team, what is our Bitcoin strategy? What should we do? Should we go buy some before them? If they buy that Bitcoin, the price is going to go up, it’s going to be more expensive for us to buy it later. And so this global game theory between governments ends up playing out. And I think ultimately, uh presidents around the world are saying to themselves you know, I’m not gonna sit back and just be the, the uh follower all the time. Maybe we should actually be a leader on our own. Um And so, you know, whether that actually occurs or not remains to be seen. Um But, you know, one of the funny things to me is uh if you are a country and you want to create a strategic stockpile, then you should buy the Bitcoin and then tell people you did it, you should not tell them you’re gonna buy it and then go buy it. Uh because yeah, you’re likely to uh to affect the price in a negative way. How likely do you think it is the US uh has a strategic stockpile of Bitcoin in the near future? Well, the United States already has, you know, 210,000 Bitcoin give or take uh in its possession had many more, you know, over the years. But uh they kind of um you know, strategy has been to sell that and get cash. Um And so, you know, does the US government hold Bitcoin today? Yes. Is it a strategic stockpile? I don’t think that’s how they view it. Um But I do think that, you know, I don’t know over the next 1015 years, uh for sure, the United States will have some Bitcoin on its balance sheet or kind of in a strategic stockpile. I think the question really just becomes, you know, how aggressive are we in that? Um And then also what is possible, you know, obviously RFK came out and said that the United States should buy 4 million Bitcoin. I don’t think that’s mathematically possible. Given how illiquid the market is the trend that illiquidity and then also the amount of capital that would be needed in order to buy that Bitcoin over, you know, call it a 1520 year period. It just would become, you know, very difficult to see a world where we could spend that much money to do it. And so it’s more likely that, you know, it’s a smaller number but something that I definitely think will occur at some point. It’s interesting, you bring up the fact that you don’t think that’s mathematically possible. And it brings me to this question. Do you think that the politicians are talking about Bitcoin to get the attention of the industry with no real plan to act to the drastic measures that they are speaking about? Because like you said, in a lot of these cases, it’s not mathematically possible or, or it doesn’t actually make sense um, to address the massive growing number of debt in the country. Yeah, I mean, 4 million is probably not possible. 1 million probably is, right. So, so we’re still talking directionally the same thing. It’s just that the magnitude or the size, um, you know, ends up being a little bit different. Uh On top of that, you know, look, politicians are politicians, right? And part of what they are supposed to do is they are supposed to represent the will of the people. One of the things that most people get, uh, kind of incorrect is that they’re like, oh, I’m trying to evaluate the politician based on what they believe. Well, actually the politician is supposed to represent what we believe as the people. And so, you know, the negative view of that is they’re pandering, they’re basically saying what we think, you know, they think we want to hear and then they’re gonna get in office to do whatever they want. The positive view of it is. No, they’re listening to their constituency and their constituency is telling them I want you to be pro Bitcoin. So the smart ones are saying I’m pro Bitcoin. Um And so, you know, regardless, yes, their campaign promises, promises is doing a lot of heavy lifting in that sentence. Uh And so do they have to fulfill the promises? Not necessarily, uh, but I do think that there’s a lot of people who are going to go into the ballot box and they’re gonna say, well, I have two candidates that, uh I’m voting for three candidates that I’m gonna evaluate. And one of them is promising me something I like and the other is promising me something I don’t like regardless of what they’re going to do, I can only evaluate the promises today. And so obviously I’m gonna go for the person who’s promising me a positive thing. And so it’s this weird thing where, um, you know, people always get hung up on, like, did the politician do what they promised? Well, you know, you should expect that they probably aren’t going to do 100% of what they promised. And, you know, one of the things I always point to is, uh, how many presidents have talked about, you know, uh releasing some sort of file, right? You know, the JFK assassination files, I think Trump had said, hey, I’m going to release this information gets in the office, doesn’t do it. And from, you know, people I know that were kind of close to the administration, he basically learned new information and then decided against it. And so if that is true and that’s how it played out well, we don’t know what that information is. And so how do we evaluate, maybe if we have that information, we’d also agree not to release it, right? And so it becomes this weird dynamic where uh constituents in the population want to uh critique politicians, but we don’t have all the information they have. Um And so that doesn’t mean we should trust them, right? We should be actually be very kind of skeptical of the promises they make and the things that they say they’re gonna do. But I do think that um also sometimes we should understand, you know, if we had all the information we actually may make the same decisions, uh, which is, you know, kind of a little bit weird. Uh, given how, uh, I think much disdain most people have for a kind of political class. I think those are all great points to make ahead of the election in November. Now. I know we only have a few minutes left and I really have been waiting to ask you this question because I know you’re a former army sergeant and it’s not uncommon to come across a former military who are now founders or operating at high levels in venture capital. And I was curious to get your thoughts on what you think it is about people with military experience that makes them such successful founders and CEO S. Well, I mean, you know, the military does a fantastic job, I think of uh breaking people down and then rebuilding them to be one leaders, but also to thrive in kind of chaotic uncertain environments, right? And if you think of the stakes, when they’re doing that training, it tends to be life or death. And so when you kind of take that and you know, bring it to something like the business world, you need leadership, you need to be able to understand and you know, be resilient and thrive in that uncertain environment, but the stakes are much lower. And so I think that people have been exposed to some of the extreme stresses of military or kind of combat deployments, they end up actually thriving even more in, you know, much more relaxed environment of the business world where the stress is, you know, kind of a different type of stress. And so, you know, it, it, I think it is a very natural progression. Um because at the end of the day, business is just leading people to accomplish something. And there’s a lot of, you know, similarities to what the military is doing. Uh you know, in the same way, when you’re looking at businesses to invest in, do you look at the founders and the experiences they’ve had in the past? Maybe it’s not military experience. But do you look for extraordinary experiences in founders? When you are thinking about investing in their companies, we’re looking for winners and, you know, winning can come in many different forms. But um when you’re evaluating a founder, you want to find someone who is gonna be able to get the job done. Um And you know, that depending on the industry, depending on the stage of the company, depending on a lot of the competitive, uh you know, components to uh to what they’re doing can be very, very different. Sometimes you need somebody who is very type a personality, somebody who, you know, has a long track record of success. Um But then other times you actually need somebody who is much more uh kind of introverted, much younger, much more technical and frankly is too naive to understand what they’re trying to do is impossible. And so really understanding, you know, what is the task at hand and what is the type of person who’s most likely to be successful here? Uh It’s a case by case scenario. All right, we got one minute left. I gotta ask you, I’ve asked you what your worst investment you ever made was. What’s the best, uh probably investing in my family? Um You know, if uh I kept the score card of all the financial investments, um you know, I probably would, would be pretty proud of that, but frankly, all the financial investments don’t stack up to uh kind of just investing in, you know, human relationships and uh making sure that you’re happy every day. And you know, if you can remember that uh all of the investing is just a game that we play on the internet. Uh It’s a lot easier to not get too excited when things are going well and not get too down when things are going well, Anthony, it’s been such a pleasure chatting with you. Thank you for joining Markets daily. Absolutely. Thanks for having me. That’s it for today’s show. Thank you so much for listening and coming on this journey with me to better understand the crypto markets. If you enjoyed this episode, be sure to subscribe on the Coin Desk Podcast Network on your preferred podcast platform. Subscribe on youtube and leave us a five star review anywhere you can. Your support means the world to us. Have a fantastic day and we’ll see you tomorrow.



Source link

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *