When Republican Kelly Ayotte and Democrat Joyce Craig sit down for Tuesday’s debate in North Conway, they’ll be meeting in a region of New Hampshire that’s undergone significant economic and political change over the past two decades.
In both 2008 and 2012, Democrat Barack Obama easily won Coös County, holding Republicans John McCain and Mitt Romney to just 40 percent of the vote. But Donald Trump’s populist appeal played well in New Hampshire’s northernmost county, and he carried it with 50 percent over Hillary Clinton and 52 percent against Joe Biden.
In 2016, the county’s 10-member state House delegation was made up of four Republicans and six Democrats. Today, the nine-member Coös County delegation is six Republicans and three Democrats, and the state GOP feels good about its odds of sweeping all nine seats in November.
The region has been struggling economically compared to the southern tier of the state, and Tuesday’s debate — hosted by the Mt. Washington Valley Economic Council — is likely to feature many questions on the economy. The politically-engaged North Country residents NHJournal spoke to Monday said the issues of inflation and energy costs are top of mind.
“There are three topics North County voters want to hear about,” said Jim Reubens with the Upper Valley Republicans: “Taxes — and property taxes in particular, the cost of living, and the northern border.”
According to Reubens, local residents are very sensitive to property taxes and their pinch on people’s wallets. “Property taxes are the biggest, most direct impact of the government’s actions. At the same time, our local voters don’t buy that raising income taxes will bring property taxes down. We live too close to Vermont to fall for that.”
Nella Thompson lives in the Carroll County town of Eaton, where she serves on the school board. For her, Ayotte’s “Don’t Mass Up New Hampshire” slogan is resonating. “It’s already happening here. It’s a mess. Prices are going straight up. I’m worried about education and our schools.”
David Rochefort is the Republican running to fill the state Senate seat being vacated by Sen. Carrie Gendreau (R).
“Voters in my district are very concerned that if we aren’t careful, New Hampshire could become just another high-cost Northeast state, with high taxes and homes that no one can afford. An undeclared voter at a town event last week spent 25 minutes telling me how worried he was that we would end up with bans on things that North Country folks need and use regularly – such as gas-powered cars and trucks or wood stoves. They don’t want people from down south coming up here and telling them how to live their lives.”
Rochefort’s opponent, Democrat Rusty Talbot, did not respond to a request for comment.
Rochefort’s concerns about energy costs are another common concern, driven in part by policies that are prioritizing — some fear mandating — electrification in a region where electricity is expensive and often inefficient.
The Biden administration’s EPA has been setting tailpipe emissions policies designed to drive gas-powered vehicles out of the marketplace. Their target is for gas-powered cars to make up no more than 30 percent of U.S. new auto sales by 2032.
“Make no mistake: This is a coerced phase-out of gas-powered cars,” The Wall Street Journal wrote.
Craig has released an energy program that, while it doesn’t call for “net zero” emissions, subsidizes electric vehicles, electric heat pumps, and other appliances.
“This is definitely a problem in the North Country,” said Marc Brown, vice president of state affairs for ratepayer advocate Consumer Energy Alliance. “The working class residents up north have lower average incomes and are more susceptible to higher energy prices.”
Asked on WMUR if she would support a new pipeline to bring more natural gas to New Hampshire, Craig declined to answer. Brown points out the Biden administration’s Department of Energy “has reported that natural gas is about three times less expensive than electricity for home heating. “Why force electrification and raise their energy costs?”
Ayotte’s campaign raised some of those same concerns on the eve of the Mt. Washington debate.
“Kelly loves the North Country and understands the economic challenges facing this beautiful part of our state,” said spokesman John Corbett.
“Granite Staters are backing Kelly Ayotte because they know she will keep New Hampshire on the Sununu path and work to lower the cost of energy for families across the state. Joyce Craig would bring Massachusetts-style energy policies to our state, driving up costs on everything from the gas in our cars to home heating. Craig in the Corner Office would mean taxes and higher costs.”
Craig would not respond to requests for comment from NHJournal. Craig also declined to say how much the “Energy Independence and Climate Plan” she released in August would cost, either in taxpayer subsidies or higher utility rates.
New Hampshire Rep. Michael Harrington (R-Strafford), a former member of the state Public Utilities Commission, said that should be a topic of conversation in any gubernatorial debate.
“The place to start the conversation is that electric ratepayers are taxpayers, and taxpayers are ratepayers. Subsidizing renewable energy with government money means more government borrowing and higher inflation or higher taxes. It’s all coming out of the same pockets.”
Another GOP candidate for state Senate, Mark McConkey in District 3, told NHJournal that when he’s out door knocking, he’s hearing the same thing from both Republicans and Democrats: “Inflation and the cost of living is the top issue. They’re concerned about kitchen table issues – prices of groceries have gone nuts, no one can afford to buy new homes and the rental market is bare. People aren’t sure how they are going to be able to heat their homes this winter.”
While even North Country Democrats acknowledge that this bastion of Bernie Sanders supporters is trending red of late, activists on both sides of the aisle say the governor’s race is still wide open.
“It’s surprisingly close,” said Reubens. “A nail biter.”
