Hallador Energy (NASDAQ:HNRG) Could Be Struggling To Allocate Capital

What financial metrics can indicate to us that a company is maturing or even in decline? Businesses in decline often have two underlying trends, firstly, a declining return on capital employed (ROCE) and a declining base of capital employed. This combination can tell you that not only is the company investing less, it’s earning less on what it does invest. In light of that, from a first glance at Hallador Energy (NASDAQ:HNRG), we’ve spotted some signs that it could be struggling, so let’s investigate.

Return On Capital Employed (ROCE): What Is It?

For those that aren’t sure what ROCE is, it measures the amount of pre-tax profits a company can generate from the capital employed in its business. Analysts use this formula to calculate it for Hallador Energy:

Return on Capital Employed = Earnings Before Interest and Tax (EBIT) ÷ (Total Assets – Current Liabilities)

0.022 = US$9.0m ÷ (US$595m – US$196m) (Based on the trailing twelve months to June 2024).

Thus, Hallador Energy has an ROCE of 2.2%. In absolute terms, that’s a low return and it also under-performs the Oil and Gas industry average of 12%.

View our latest analysis for Hallador Energy

In the above chart we have measured Hallador Energy’s prior ROCE against its prior performance, but the future is arguably more important. If you’re interested, you can view the analysts predictions in our free analyst report for Hallador Energy .

The Trend Of ROCE

We are a bit worried about the trend of returns on capital at Hallador Energy. To be more specific, the ROCE was 4.8% five years ago, but since then it has dropped noticeably. Meanwhile, capital employed in the business has stayed roughly the flat over the period. This combination can be indicative of a mature business that still has areas to deploy capital, but the returns received aren’t as high due potentially to new competition or smaller margins. So because these trends aren’t typically conducive to creating a multi-bagger, we wouldn’t hold our breath on Hallador Energy becoming one if things continue as they have.

On a side note, Hallador Energy’s current liabilities have increased over the last five years to 33% of total assets, effectively distorting the ROCE to some degree. If current liabilities hadn’t increased as much as they did, the ROCE could actually be even lower. While the ratio isn’t currently too high, it’s worth keeping an eye on this because if it gets particularly high, the business could then face some new elements of risk.

The Bottom Line

In the end, the trend of lower returns on the same amount of capital isn’t typically an indication that we’re looking at a growth stock. Yet despite these concerning fundamentals, the stock has performed strongly with a 76% return over the last five years, so investors appear very optimistic. Regardless, we don’t feel too comfortable with the fundamentals so we’d be steering clear of this stock for now.

One more thing to note, we’ve identified 2 warning signs with Hallador Energy and understanding them should be part of your investment process.

While Hallador Energy may not currently earn the highest returns, we’ve compiled a list of companies that currently earn more than 25% return on equity. Check out this free list here.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.